UKHamlet's Blog

The Six Nations Championship is upon us again. Speaking as a Welshman, the first game is absolutely critical this time. Talk about your whole season hanging on one game. If we win at Twickers – which would be a mighty task given the history of this game – we will be on a roll. History is against us though. Not only will it be our 4th Six Nations win against the English in a row but it includes back to back wins at Twickers . We’ve done it before, but not very often – certainly not in the last thirty years :

• 1950 & 1952 (4 win streak ’49-’52)
• 1970 & 1972 (5 win streak ’69-’73)
• 1976 & 1978 (5 win streak ’75-’79)

In our first golden era we had a 10 game unbeaten run (1899-1909). In our second golden era we had only lost once (1974) to England in the period 1969-1979.

Can this team do what the Golden Era boys did?

We are 8th in the IRB table, only Scotland and Italy are below us, with England, France and Ireland 2, 3 and 4 places above us respectively. We have just come off the back of a pretty dire autumn series, our regional teams are stuttering and our management seems bereft of new ideas.

So far has the stock of our coaches fallen, that the Irish are suggesting that they’re glad they sacked him. Obviously, their Grand Slam is worth both ours. Now, it would be churlish to suggest that they only got theirs courtesy of a missed game winning penalty by Stephen Jones, but no more so than the implication that Gatland is an Irish hater. He probably has a gripe about the IRFU, but who wouldn’t given his treatment? They are lucky they have a great coach in Declan K – who has turned a team of honest plodders into a tenacious fighting unit. He took one season to do that.

Gatland can do the same. Let’s face it – Wales were awful last season and worse in the AIs, but this game is about momentum. If we can turn over the English in Twickenham, it will transform the team, and more importantly transform the perception of the team.

Having most of team back and fit will help. I’m not going to mention the G word, but I still think we’d be a 50% better side if he were fit and playing. Crucially, we have a front row to compete with anyone, including two of the biggest hitters in the game: Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones. Jones is like another flanker around the park – he’s in everywhere and everyone knows about Gethin’s engine. These two alone will ensure that we will be competitive up front. Add to that the fact that our set pieces are looking settled – Banjo is hitting his jumpers, as well as contributing with his carrying game and I’d be surprised if we didn’t push a few of the scrums around this year. As long as our back row play well, I think the rest will slot together – more about that later.

Let’s not underestimate England though. For sure Martin Johnson is looking increasingly out of his depth at this level. He’s not the most cerebral of guys and his increasing tendency to talk in clichés is making him look embattled – relying on tired old scripts. Still, they pulled out a good performance losing against the All Blacks and they have absolutely loads of talented players in every position – with perhaps the exception being the front and second row, where they are looking old and past it.

I fear England’s loose forwards though – they are fast and powerful (when have they not been). This is also where we are paradoxically at our weakest. Not the quality, but the pace and the power. Let’s assume we go with a back row of Williams / Jones / Powell or JT. Of that lot, only Powell has any real pace AND power – Martyn Williams is a clever runner, but not the most powerful of guys, Ryan is strong, but lacks pace and JT is similar. I can’t see any way that we can afford to have both Ryan and JT in the back row – they don’t offer enough options. So we have to go with Powell – his tackling and constant threat with the ball in hand will keep the English back row honest.

We also need to combat the “come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough” attitude of Shaw and Borthwick with controlled aggression. AWJ is up for that, but who to partner him? The options are Gough, Charteris, JT, Deiniol Jones or Bradley Davies. Against England, I’d be loathe to drop the youthful and inexperienced Davies in, despite him being the more talented of the group. Charteris has done well recently, but still fails to convince around the park – although to be fair he has upped his game there. I think Deiniol is there as a water carrier, to be honest. He’s playing well, but he’s not going to get game time unless we have a run of injuries. So Gough or JT? Gough would get it if we just needed an enforcer. He’s granite and tackles like a brick wall. But we need everyone to carry the game to the English – I prefer the mobility of JT, and we lose nothing in the lineout.

Up front, I’ll be honest, and say I think we’ll kill them. I’ve never been more confident of our front row. We’ll kill them in the set piece, we’ll kill them in the loose. For once, Wales will have a distinct advantage in this area. Traditionally, England’s front row is as good as anyone’s – this year, it will not be the case. They will struggle. It is here, more than anywhere else where I think we can win the game.

We can win the game by winning good, quick ball and moving it quickly amongst the backs. That word “quickly” again. So, do we go with the game, but injury hampered, Cooper, who has bags of pace, but rarely uses it? Or do we go with the clearly out of form Peel? Or better still, run with the youngster from Llanelli, Roberts? He has form, pace, power and aggression. Or perhaps the least luxuriantly talented, but on top of his game Richie Rees? It’s a quandary. I think we need a distributor, not a ball carrier. That alone rules out Rees. I would run with the experienced Peel and have Roberts on the bench in case he’s crap. Cooper is struggling, I fear and may well call time on what has been an illustrious career – more about that another time.

Our backs are definitely a weakness at the moment though. Despite us having one of the best fly-halves in the business, and potentially a devastating group of runners in the Doc, Shanks, Byrne, HP, and Shane – we seem to be lacking something – and I think that something is ideas. Our attack coach is, frankly, useless. He has taken some of the best open field runners in the game and turned them into crash ball plodders. WTF is going on with our backs? I hope the added threat of Byrne will open some holes in the English defence, because otherwise we will struggle to cross the line.

They say, the forwards win games, but the backs determine by how much. If that’s the case, we will win in Twickenham, but our score will be divisable by 3. How ironic is that?

Final score: Stephen Jones 15-14 England

Tries: Monye, Wilkinson

Or something like that…