One of the things glossed over in the headlong rush by the OBR to downwardly revise nearly everything yesterday is their unemployment forecast. Probably because this is upwards.
Both the ILO and the claimant rates are expect to rise next year. Currently we are 8.1% and 1.53 million claimants. This is expect to rise to 8.2% and 1.66 million in 2013, then 8.2% and 1.69 million in 2014. Obviously they expect this to right itself and start coming down in 2015 – but then they won##Q##t be in charge then, so it probably will.
When they are forecasting a rise in unemployment, even by their own measures, then you have to start worrying. While I don##Q##t have any faith in the forecasts of this patently useless group, it##Q##s mostly because when they say things will be bad they are usually worse, that I am really concerned about this.
So far they have managed revise their forecasts on the following dates:
- June 2010
- November 2010
- March 2011
- November 2011
- March 2012
- December 2012
I fully expect them to revise again in March 2013. They##Q##ve got it wrong every time and this is because the whole government strategy has failed to perform as they expect it to. Somebody defined madness as carrying out an action, then repeating it expecting to get a different result. Fortunately, the government has changed track slightly by putting a stimulus into place – they did the same in the last quarter and it lifted us out of recession. They knew this would work all along, but chose not to do it.
The only conclusion you can draw from this is they don##Q##t really care about all the suffering they have inflicted, because it##Q##s all part of an ideologically motivated plan to roll back the state and make it a playground for the very rich, while the rest of us suffer.