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The hidden OBR forecast

by Marrick on December 6, 2012

One of the things glossed over in the headlong rush by the OBR to downwardly revise nearly everything yesterday is their unemployment forecast. Probably because this is upwards.

Both the ILO and the claimant rates are expect to rise next year. Currently we are 8.1% and 1.53 million claimants. This is expect to rise to 8.2% and 1.66 million in 2013, then 8.2% and 1.69 million in 2014. Obviously they expect this to right itself and start coming down in 2015 – but then they won##Q##t be in charge then, so it probably will.

When they are forecasting a rise in unemployment, even by their own measures, then you have to start worrying. While I don##Q##t have any faith in the forecasts of this patently useless group, it##Q##s mostly because when they say things will be bad they are usually worse, that I am really concerned about this.

So far they have managed revise their forecasts on the following dates:

  • June 2010
  • November 2010
  • March 2011
  • November 2011
  • March 2012
  • December 2012

I fully expect them to revise again in March 2013. They##Q##ve got it wrong every time and this is because the whole government strategy has failed to perform as they expect it to. Somebody defined madness as carrying out an action, then repeating it expecting to get a different result. Fortunately, the government has changed track slightly by putting a stimulus into place – they did the same in the last quarter and it lifted us out of recession. They knew this would work all along, but chose not to do it.

The only conclusion you can draw from this is they don##Q##t really care about all the suffering they have inflicted, because it##Q##s all part of an ideologically motivated plan to roll back the state and make it a playground for the very rich, while the rest of us suffer.

2 thoughts on “The hidden OBR forecast

  1. ubermik says:

    this is along the same lines as my own thoughts which “feels” pretty obvious

    I think that only very naive people or people who strongly want to avoid reaching a conclusion, seeing something, of making a realisation that “should” cause them to take action and fight for what they know is right because deep down they know full well they would do nothing as long as it didnt directly influence them too much

    So instead millions upon millions of people deliberately delude themselves that governments with all their expert advisors, committees, brainstorming sessions and colleagues to work with STILL somehow manage to make silly mistakes, overlook the obvious or are just too thick to know any better

    How dumb do you have to be to think that?

    it would seem that someone of average intelligence can easily think that with enough effort and apathy

    The reality though is that we see something that (to us) doesnt make sense, but that is sense based on the rather naive assumption that the government is at least trying to do the best for the voters, the country and the majority

    But if you instead accept theyre doing what is best for themselves, their own family, friends, business partners, colleagues and the financial contributors who own them lock stock and barrel then what “seemed” to be stupid actually makes perfect sense and becomes planly obvious

    But apparently not plainly obvious enough for the majority of voters to see

    Go figure……

  2. ubermik says:

    Re the deliberate collapse of the economy though, As has already been fairly clear the ruling elite seem to be aiming for a dickenzian type society again, or something closer to the US one

    Where the poor (even if in full employment) will barely be able to make ends meet, will probably have little to no access to health care, decent education, legal representation or decent housing

    The rich whilst remaining similar in numbers will have a far higher percentage of the nations wealth further widening the gap between the richest and poorest not leastly because of the quite deliberate planned erosion of workers rights and benefits that took so many decades to attain

    But you have to admire their clever approach and intimate knowledge of the mindless gullibility of the voting majority,

    Because rather than openly admitting the plan with something like

    “We your parliament have been instructed by our employers the rich party fund donators that they want to be able to pay workers less than the legal minimum wage far more easily than it is now. They also want to be able to sack you when they feel like it with little to no risk of any comeback even if they are in the wrong. And they want to be able to force you to work much longer hours for the same amount of pay without having to give you holiday pay, sick pay or a pension”

    Because lets face it, even the moronic mindless sheep that make up the nations majority might actually utter a slight murmur of protest about that albeit only on twitter or facebook

    instead they went with something like

    “We think its unfair that people who WANT to work 50 or 60 hour weeks should be denied that by the EU and by their employers so we want to change the employment law so that people will be ALLOWED to work that many hours in a week so they arent underemployed any more”

    Yeah right, like employers are actively stopping people from doing an extra 50% for free (on a salary) and the workers all want to but

    Fnarr fnarr, and yet I have seen droves of quite animated idiots saying exactly that lately

    More companies are also making their STAFF self employed so they can pay them less and not have to pay them for being sick, pregnant or old enough to retire (which I think is 106 now isnt it?)

    Oh and also they want to make it easier for those poor employers to be able to sack unproductive employees far more easily by removing most of the red tape, and of course they just wouldnt ever consider doing that to productive employees too that just refused to put up with ridiculous working conditions would they…. would they?

    But just incase some do, and just incase that ungrateful peasand dared to try and take action against them for unfair dismissal, racism, sexism or whatever they did the government is also in the process of dismantling the appeals process too and removing its funding so if you do find yourself unfairly dismissed you will need to have stashed away enough of your below minimum pay wage to pay for your own defence

    Which we are told is designed to stop false accusations……..

    Is that a euphamism for “poor peoples whining” I wonder

    My what interesting times we live in, and yet despite the similarities for some strange reason I DONT get the urge to say “can I please have some more sir”

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